2010 Predictions: How did we do?

It’s the end of the year and that means two things are happening: end of the year reviews and 2011 predictions. At the beginning of the year, we made seven predictions of what would happen in social media over the year.  Since all predictions are largely best guesses based on watching industry trends, we thought it would interesting to look at the predictions we made and see how accurate they turned out to be. Let’s take a look.

I don't want to spoil the results but it is this awesome!

Prediction 1

Micro communities

What we said: People are starting to look for smaller, more relevant communities in the coming year. 2010 will see the rise of Ning, Xing and LinkedIn, as well as location based communities like Foursquare and Gowalla, which will be purchased and incorporated into Facebook and Google in 2011.

What happened: Ning went pay and saw their numbers drop month after month. Xing has also seen a big drop in monthly numbers according to Compete.com. LinkedIn has stayed true to itself and maintained a loyal following. Foursquare continues to grow rapidly. Both Foursquare and GoWalla didn’t get acquired by a larger company, instead Facebook and Google launched their own location based services.

Score: 0

Prediction 2

Facebook starts to slip

What we said: After obtaining the seemingly impossible in five years (350 million members), Facebook has justly secured their place as top dog in the social media world. There is no where to go but down from here. While expanding their functionality and destroying their credibility through poor decisions on how to handle user privacy, Facebook will lose members as users become overwhelmed with follow requests, app requests, security settings and a million other little things.

What happened: Oops, we missed the ball on this one. Facebook just passed Google in terms of daily traffic. It’s the most popular site on the web with over 500 million members. They didn’t make the huge privacy mistakes that they had in the past, which shows that the site is learning from its mistakes and with $2 Billion in revenue this year, they aren’t going anywhere for a while.

Score: 0

Prediction 3

Google makes search more relevant

What we said: Google released real-time search at the end of 2009, but it’s not as refined as it could be. Google will continue to refine their search techniques based on the personal experience of the user. This means my search for a thai restaurant in San Francisco could be completely different from your search. Google rushed real-time search out in order to beat Bing to the punch, but expect it to be streamlined by the end of the year. 

What happened: Totally nailed that one. Sure the idea that Google will make search more relevant seems pretty obvious but at the time Google hadn’t announced customized search based on your previous searches. These days, if you are logged into Google, your search results are based on your browsing history and previous searches. It’s highly customized to your online habits.

Score: 1

Prediction 4

Gaming becomes more social

What we said: 2010 will be a rebirth in gaming with games not just linking to Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, but by allowing users to create original content through them as well. In addition, online gaming companies like Zynga, Playfish and Crowdstar are expanding the capability of their games. Also, expect mobile gaming to go to great heights with the iPhone and Android phones changing the way we envision mobile gaming.

What happened: According to InsideSocialGames.com, in December FarmVille had 53 million people playing it. Add to that, Texas HoldEm Poker (34 million), FrontierVille (29 million), Mafia Wars (21 million) and Cafe World (16 million), that’s a lot people playing social games. Zynga released CityVille in December and within 22 days it had 60 million players. More games are coming out all the time and our thirst for social gaming doesn’t seem to be slowing down.

Score: 2

Prediction 5

Big Brother won’t have to watch us

What we said: We’ll do it ourselves - In our ever expanding need to feel relevant and hip, we now do what people a decade ago would have viewed as implausible. Privacy isn’t an issue like it used to be. We now tell people where we are and what we’re doing every moment. Thanks to Foursquare, Google Geotagging, Gowalla and Britekite, we can automatically update our location without lifting a finger. Expect this trend to continue, and get much more invasive before it gets better.

What happened: Not only are we giving up more of our privacy, we’re finding new ways to do it. New sites like Miso, clone sites of Chatroulette and huge YouTube growth have people sharing more of their lives than ever before. With Foursquare check-ins, Tripit updates and Facebook status updates, you can track a person’s every move. With Facebook expanding their location based check-in’s next year, look for people to share even more personal information. 

Score: 3

Prediction 6

iPhone loses ground to Android

What we said: Sure, the iPhone is great, but it has one major drawback: it’s only available on one phone. Now imagine the same software that makes the iPhone great spread over several phones with cheaper price-tags. The Android has the potential to be a game changer in next generation phone development. With several phones coming out in 2010, the huge market share that the iPhone now controls will quickly erode.

What happened: iPhones didn’t just lose ground to Android but by August, lost its lead.  Thanks to the Android being the new standard for smart phones, almost every phone you purchase these days is being run on the platform. Expect interesting things in the coming year as Android keeps rolling ahead.

Score: 4

Prediction 7

Companies discover how to use social media

What we said: 2009 was the year that businesses discovered that the internet isn’t just a children’s toy any more. 2010 will be the year that companies finally start using social media as an important marketing tool and will devote more of the advertising funds to online efforts. 2009 saw some interesting uses of Twitter, Facebook and iPhone apps as companies dipped their toes in the pond. Now that they’ve explored a little, expect some interesting online campaigns.

What happened: A recent report by Social Media Examiner showed how the marketing industry is using social media. Marketers are spending between 6-10 hours a week on social media. That’s more than an hour a day. In the next year, 81% are planning to increase their social media presence. Expect to see more companies jumping on the social media bandwagon. 

Score: 5

So how did we do? 5 out of 7. Not bad. What do you think will be the big trends in 2011?

Stefan Halley is the Digital Project Leader for The Duffy Agency. He loves to talk about social media.

Tweet