7 predictions for Twitter in 2010

The Christmas presents have been opened (thanks for the Kindle, mom!), the new year celebrated and the year in reviews written, so now it’s time to look ahead to 2010. As we wrote earlier, 2009 was a killer year for Twitter. But will 2010 see the micro blogging sensation continue to rocket upwards? Probably not, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Here are 7 predictions of what the coming twelve months hold in store for everyone’s favorite little blue bird.

1. Twitter will expand more aggressively outside of the US, but overall growth will drop off
Twitter is about as big as it ever will be in the US, so if they want their user base to continue expanding they’ll have to make a more significant push into Europe and beyond. It will gain millions more followers outside the US as new population groups discover its potential, but the overall growth of Twitter will never again attain the huge increases of the past few years. It will cease to be a pop culture phenomenon and hot buzz word, and start to find its long term place in the social media tool box.

2. The Twitter horde will get thinned out, leaving a more manageable core of users
Many people who jumped on the Twitter bandwagon will forget about it as they hop onto the next one. This wave of everyone and their sister being interested cresting and receding may end up being a good thing. Twitter has long been frustrating for people interested in using it because of the fluff-to-useful content ration being way out of whack. With users who are more focused and dedicated staying on while others jump off, that ratio may well start to balance out.

3. Innovative mashups will keep the excitement alive
The waning novelty of Twitter will be somewhat abated by the novelty of new mashup applications utilizing the service. By all accounts location based apps are the next big thing, and Twitter is sure to factor into many of these new creations. I’d expect to see features like having each Tweet tagged with your current location and creating a map of where you’ve tweeted from. But people smarter than me are sure to come up with far more clever uses.

4. Companies’ Twitter use will become more focused and get a budget
Companies will start to really get their heads around Twitter this year, having had time to let the idea of it sink in and its potential become apparent. What once struck them as a fad among kids has now proven an effective marketing tool in enough cases to change their minds and get them to put some money aside for running a Twitter campaign, and create the guidelines to do it well. But it’s the ones who got in early who will really start to benefit this year.

5. Better analytics will make Twitter a valid market research tool
The ability to use Twitter to listen in on targeted groups will keep getting more refined. Getting an intimate look inside the minds of the people you’re trying to talk to is invaluable, and with Twitter companies will be getting this at minimal cost. As companies accept more and more that Twitter is not just a toy for young people, they’ll see just how big a treasure trove of market insights it is – and develop the tools to mine them. 

6. Twitter will make more money than Facebook
The monetization of Twitter has already begun with Google and Bing paying for Tweets to appear in their search results. Twitter is certainly a long way from reaching Facebook’s level of profitability, but it has a big advantage over the social networking site as it’s much better suited as an information sharing and promotional tool. More companies will realize Twitter’s value and pay good money to incorporate it into their offer. And with real-time search results gaining ground as the search method of the future, Twitter has a lot of potential to become a hot commodity.

7. Twitter will get sold
It may seem a little premature to sell before it becomes truly profitable, but Twitter is probably valued higher right now than it ever will be. The surge of interest in it and growth have plateaued, leaving it’s future direction and focus up in the air. The time is ripe for one of the big boys to step in and give it just such a direction and future. I see Google, Microsoft or Facebook taking over Twitter and developing it as part of their service. Whether or not that will be a successful venture, well, time will tell. It’s going to be an interesting year.

Jason Ross is a copywriter for The Duffy Agency. He loves working on both traditional and social media projects and speculating on the future of the ad industry. 

Comments

[Lars Tong Strömberg]

I have to disagree about Twitter vs. Facebook.

Facebook has a much bigger and broader target group appeal/potential and the consumer data value they have and generate for long-term crm purposes is so much higher.

JMHOFWIW.